000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 7 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 130.2W AT 07/1500 
UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1009 MB. SMALL BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE 
CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS KRISTY TRACKS W UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EPAC ALONG 84/85W N OF 4N 
MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE THE 
WAVE AXIS AND THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITH NO APPARENT ORGANIZATION.

...ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N86W 8N100W 12N110W 13N125W 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
60/80 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-100W AND WITHIN AROUND 
250 NM BETWEEN 114W-125W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NORTH OF 25N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
MODERATE TO STRONG DRY UPPER AIR RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD 
SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND W OF 112W ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE 
LOCATED NEAR 27N120W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THIS 
HIGH...COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO. BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH 
DOMINATES CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 94W TO A 
BASE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IS EVIDENT W OF 120W.

AN UPPER LOW IS SITUATED NEAR 19N132W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL EPAC E OF 110W. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS ALSO SPREADING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FROM CONVECTION 
PREVIOUSLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
 
PATCHES OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED 
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST...MAINLY FROM 16N TO NEAR MARIA 
ISLANDS.  
 
$$
GR