000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061013 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 6 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 125.2W AT 06/0900 
UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1005 MB. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN 
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AN INDICATION THAT STABLE AIR AROUND  
THE STORM IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. LITTLE CHANGE 
IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS KRISTY TRACKS 
W UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 8N82W 8N90W 11N97W 
10N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS DOMINATED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A 
MEAN AXIS ALONG 160W. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE ROTATING THROUGH 
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING 
THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDS FROM A WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N149W SWWD TO NEAR 24N151W. 
THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ARE RIDING 
NEWD AT 15-20 KT OVER A WWD EXPANDING RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM 
AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 28N125W SWWD TO 22N142W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 25N109W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W 
ACROSS MEXICO ALONG 26N TO THE ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE. A SMALL 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 20N105W RIDGING S OVER THE E PACIFIC. ITS 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS N OF 10N BETWEEN 
90W AND 105W. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE SW FROM CONVECTION 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION 
CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 19N TO 23N AND THE ITCZ 
IS RESULTING IN MOIST UPPER LEVELS IN THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ 
E OF 105W.

THE UPPER LEVELS S OF 18N W OF 105W ARE DOMINATED BY EASTERLY 
WINDS SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE W TO 140W AND SPLITS AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IN HALF...CONFINING VERY DRY AIR TO AN AREA N OF 27N E OF 130W. 

A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE NW PORTION ALONG 32N132W TO 
24N122W. 
 
$$
MUNDELL