000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 122.8W AT 05/2100 
UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE 
INCREASED TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 1002 MB. THE EASTERLY SHEAR 
CONTINUES TO RELAX AND HAS ALLOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO PERSIST 
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED POSSIBLY INDICATING THAT SOME 
OF THE STABLE AIR SURROUNDING THE STORM MAY BE ENTRAINING INTO 
THE CIRCULATION. IN ANY EVENT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS KRISTY TRACKS W UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN SHEAR OR SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 8N78W 10N100W 10N120W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS DOMINATED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH MEAN 
AXIS ALONG 150-155W. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING THROUGH THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING NE WITH ITS 
AXIS ESTIMATED FROM 35N136W TO 32N151W. A SECOND AND MORE 
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 33N148W 
THROUGH AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR AT 31N149W. THE EASTWARD PROGRESS 
OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS BEING RESTRICTED BY THE WWD EXPANSION OF AN 
UPPER RIDGE. THIS RIDGE ORIGINATES FROM AN ANTICYCLONE ESTIMATED 
NEAR 31N122W SWWD TO 24N140W. 

A WEAK AND OPEN INVERTED TROUGH...EXTENDS N TO S AND JUST E OF 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY. THE UPPER LEVELS S OF 18N BETWEEN 135W 
AND 107W ARE DOMINATED BY EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 6S128W.

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 25N107W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING 
W ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA ALONG 26N TO THE 
ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE. YET ANOTHER SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 
20N105W RIDGING S OVER THE E PACIFIC. ITS ENVELOPE OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS N OF 10N BETWEEN 
90W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ENHANCED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 
104W AND 109W.

DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ADVECTED S MERGING WITH DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION ENHANCED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST 
AND FROM ITCZ CONVECTION...ALL RESULTING IN MOIST UPPER LEVELS 
IN THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO THE E OF 125W. THE UPPER LEVELS 
ARE EXTREMELY DRY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 30N116W 
27N130W 17N140W...AND DRY ELSEWHERE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NW 
OF LINE 9N140W 16N132W 23N129W 27N113W. DEBRIS MOISTURE THAT 
ORIGINATED FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN ARE STILL 
SPREADING EWD ACROSS TEXAS.

A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE NW PORTION ALONG 32N132W 
24N122W. 
 
$$
COBB