000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 121.5W AT 05/1500 
UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE 
INCREASED TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 1005 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE AND HAS PERSISTED 
LONG ENOUGH TO UPGRADE KRISTY BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM. A STABLE 
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER STRENGTHENING AS KRISTY 
TRACKS W UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN 
SHEAR OR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 8N78W 8N83W 
11N94W 9N110W 10N126W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 5N86W 
10N104W 5N113W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 10N120W 6N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE NE PACIFIC IS DOMINATED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING 
FROM A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE ESTIMATED NEAR 55N152W. SEVERAL 
SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE PATTERN. ONE 
SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING NE WITH ITS AXIS ESTIMATED FROM 35N136W TO 
A BASE JUST INTO THE AREA AT 30N131W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS 
APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS AXIS 
CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG 40N154W THROUGH AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 
34N149W THEN SW THROUGH ANOTHER CYCLONE AT 31N156W WITH A BASE 
NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS 
SHORTWAVE IS TEMPORALLY RESTRICTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. THIS RIDGE 
ORIGINATES FROM AN ANTICYCLONE ESTIMATED NEAR 31N122W AND 
RIDGING W TO A SHARP CREST AT 25N140W. 

A WEAK AND OPEN INVERTED TROUGH...EXTENDS N TO S AND JUST E OF 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY. THE UPPER LEVELS S OF 18N BETWEEN 135W 
AND 107W ARE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 6S128W.

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 27N106W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING 
W ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA ALONG 26N. YET 
ANOTHER SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 20N103W RIDGING S OVER THE E 
PACIFIC. ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE UPPER 
LEVELS N OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ENHANCED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 95W AND BETWEEN 100W AND 108W.

DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ADVECTED S MERGING WITH DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION ENHANCED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST 
AND FROM ITCZ CONVECTION...ALL RESULTING IN MOIST UPPER LEVELS 
IN THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO THE E OF 125W. THE UPPER LEVELS 
ARE EXTREMELY DRY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 30N116W 
27N130W 17N140W...AND DRY ELSEWHERE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NW 
OF LINE 9N140W 16N132W 23N129W 27N113W. DEBRIS MOISTURE THAT 
ORIGINATED FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN ARE STILL 
SPREADING ENE ACROSS TEXAS.

A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE NW PORTION ALONG 32N132W 
24N122W. 
 
$$
NELSON