000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 119.8W AT 
05/0300 UTC MOVING SW OR 235 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED NEAR 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF KRISTY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE FLARE 
UPS...THE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND COVERS A LARGER PORTION 
OF THE CIRCULATION DESPITE THE ONGOING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE 
SYSTEM. DESPITE THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE CONVECTION...WEAKENING 
IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DISSIPATION OF 
THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 10N86W 11N96W 
8N105W 12N116W 11N133W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 
45 NM OF 8.7N 95.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM WITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 108W. 

...DISCUSSION...

BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERING THE NE PACIFIC IS JUST 
NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 145W/146W. 
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE TROUGH 
WITH THE FIRST IN THE SERIES APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 35N140W 29N146W 
RESULTING IN UPPER SWLY FLOW NW OF LINE 32N125W 22N140W. THE 
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE RETREATING IN THE FACE ON A WWD BUILDING 
RIDGE NOTED BELOW. 

TO THE SE...AN E-W RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
27N104W...THROUGH SEVERAL OTHER ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS JUST OFF 
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N115W AND A WEAKER CENTER 
NEAR 24N125W THEN WWD TO 22N138W AND BUILDING WWD WITH TIME. 
YET ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N102W. EASTERLY 
FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WAS 
ADVECTING MOISTURE WWD TO ALONG 130W FROM 12N TO 25N AND ALSO 
PROVIDING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER T.D. KRISTY. A WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WAS NOTED NEAR 17N116W AND WAS MOVING WWD TOWARD 
T.D. KRISTY. 

THE UPPER LEVELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 32N114W 25N128W 15N140W AND DRY ELSEWHERE IN THE NW HALF OF 
DISCUSSION AREA. DRY AXIS WAS MOVING NWWD 10-15 KT AHEAD OF THE 
BUILDING RIDGE NOTED ABOVE. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN ARE ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL 
CONUS.  

AT THE SURFACE. REMNANT LOW OF JOHN WAS LOCATED OVER THE 
NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ NEAR 30N113W. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
INTO THE NW PORTION ALONG 32N135W 25N125W. 
 
$$
COBB