000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042114
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 119.3W AT 
04/2100 UTC MOVING SW OR 225 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE FLARE U-P OF CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER 
HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING A SWIRL OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THIS MAY 
BE A HARBINGER OF ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO 
RESULT IN DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 8N78W 12N95W 
8N105W 12N114W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 6N E OF 
85W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 107W...AND WITHIN 
120-180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 102W.   

...DISCUSSION...

BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERING THE NE PACIFIC IS JUST 
NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 145W. SEVERAL 
SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE 
FIRST IN THE SERIES APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 32N143W 26N145W RESULTING IN 
UPPER SWLY FLOW NW OF LINE 32N125W 22N140W. 

TO THE SE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 23N123W WITH A RIDGE 
EXPANDING SWWD TO NEAR 21N135W. UPPER CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IS 
NOTED IN SATELLITE WINDS LYING ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE...ALONG 33N112W THROUGH MID LEVEL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE REMNANTS OF JOHN...AND CONTINUING SW THROUGH 27N115W. 
ANOTHER BUT LARGER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 28N105W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW MERGING WITH THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N123W. YET 
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N100W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR 15N108W. A WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WAS NOTED  TO THE W OF THE RIDGE NEAR 17N115W 
AND WAS SWEEPING WWD TOWARD WEAKENING T.D. KRISTY. 

THE UPPER LEVELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 32N115W 25N127W 15N140W AND DRY ELSEWHERE IN THE NW HALF OF 
DISCUSSION AREA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL 
CYCLONE JOHN ARE ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS.  

AT THE SURFACE. REMNANT LOW OF JOHN WAS LOCATED OVER THE 
NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ NEAR 29.5N113W. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
INTO THE NW PORTION ALONG 32N135W 25N125W. 
 
$$
COBB