000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 113.3W AT 
04/1500 UTC 1004 MB MOVING TOWARD THE N NW OR 340 DEG AT 6 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER OVER THE NE QUADRANT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH 
THE REMNANT LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST 
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING 
COMPLETELY. MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER NW 
OLD MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED STATES. THE LAST ADVISORY WAS 
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 04/1500 UTC. 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 119.0W AT 
04/1500 UTC MOVING W SW OR 250 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED AGAIN 
WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND 
KRISTY WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW PRES WITHIN 24 
HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 9N77W 7N83W 
12N95W 8N104W 12N114W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED N OF 5N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG OBSERVED FROM 4N TO 18N BETWEEN 94W AND 114W AND WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N111W 7N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE NE PACIFIC IS DOMINATED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A DEEP 
LAYERED CYCLONE ESTIMATED NEAR 52N147W. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE 
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE PATTERN WITH THE EASTERNMOST 
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
ITS AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 32N145W 24N146W RESULTING IN UPPER SW 
FLOW NW OF LINE 22N140W 32N122W. 

TO THE SE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 21N122W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 21N132W. AN UPPER CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS 
IS DENOTED IN SATELLITE WINDS LYING ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF 
THE RIDGE...ALONG 33N112W THROUGH MID LEVEL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED 
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN...AND CONTINUING SW THROUGH 27N114W 
23N126W 19N133W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 13N143W. ANOTHER UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 28N105W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW MERGING 
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N122W. YET ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N95W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W 
ACROSS OLD MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC CRESTING NEAR 15N106W. 

THE UPPER LEVELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 29N115W 25N126W 14N140W AND DRY ELSEWHERE DISCUSSION AREA 
NW OF LINE 10N140W 13N126W 23N125W 27N110W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN ARE ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE 
S CENTRAL CONUS.  

A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE NW PORTION ALONG 32N135W 
25N125W. 
 
$$
NELSON