000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040941 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON SEP 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 113.1W AT 04/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NNW AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR 45 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STORM AND MAINLY OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ BETWEEN 27.5N AND 29N. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.6W AT 04/0900 UTC DRIFTING W AT 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. NO CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY LOW AND MID STRATAFORM CLOUDS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .NONE ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 9N78W 11N89W 9N103W 12N117W 9N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N78W 11N98W 6N105W AND 7N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N112W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST FROM 7N78W TO 10N86W AND FROM 14N94W TO 15N98W TO 17N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR 22N107W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES OVER NRN MEXICO BUT IS DRIFTING E. THE WESTERLIES ARE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE ALONG OUR NRN BORDER WITH ONE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE ERN US AND ANOTHER STRONGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NE PACIFIC ALONG 140W. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD CONTINUES BETWEEN 110W AND 130W AND THIS WEAKNESS IS INFLUENCING T.D. JOHN TO MOVE NWD. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK PACIFIC RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N135W AT 1018 MB. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT N OF 20N AND W OF 125W ACCORDING TO SSMI. NO PASS FROM QUIKSCAT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED BETWEEN 95W AND 110W ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI. LATER DAY 1 THE MAIN CHANGE AT MID LEVELS IS A LOWERING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W ALONG 145W BETWEEN 20N AND 30N. OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL HANG ON OVER NRN MEXICO. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AT MID LEVELS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WHERE THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WHATS LEFT OF T.D. JOHN WILL MOVE N OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH MOSTLY MODERATE RAIN. T.S. KRISTY WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AND DRIFT W TO NEAR 18N119W. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS SOME AND NE TRADES WILL BE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT W OF 130W. N WINDS TO 20 KT SHOULD BE THE RULE N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. GAP WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS STRONGEST BETWEEN 95W AND 110W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WEAKENS WHILE THE RIDGE BETWEEN 120W AND 135W N OF 25N STRENGTHENS. THE SHORTWAVE JUST W OF THE AREA MOVES NE WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON THE REGION. TROPICAL EASTERLIES STRENGTHEN SOME S OF 20N DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 BOTH TROPICAL SYSTEMS WEAKEN TO REMNANT LOWS WITH JOHN OVER NRN BAJA AND KRISTY DRIFTING W TO SW NEAR 18N121W. THE PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME UNDER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT MID LEVELS. THUS NE TRADES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20 KT N OF 15N AND W OF 125W. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS A RESULT OF WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 20N. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST S OF 8N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. $$ RRG