000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 113.1W AT 
04/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...NORTHWEST OF SANTA 
ROSALIA MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NNW AT 7 MPH...11 
KM/HR...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. 
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
INLAND OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION IS RAGGED WITH ONLY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CONFINED TO WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT 
OF THE STORM AND MAINLY OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ BETWEEN 27.5N AND 
29N. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.4W AT 04/0300 
UTC DRIFTING TO THE W AT 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN
40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1006 MB. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE DECREASE AND CONSISTS 
OF ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONFINED TO WITHIN 60-75 
75 NM OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE W QUADRANT. IF THIS TREND 
CONTINUES KRISTY WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 
HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...ITCZ...10N86W 10N95W 8N105W 12N120W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 119W...
WITHIN 120-150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W AND 133W...AND W OF 
138W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 107W.  

...DISCUSSION...
SHEARED UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA 
N OF 28N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W AND IS PART OF A BROAD AREA OF 
TROUGHINESS COVERING THE NW THIRD OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS 
AREA FEATURED SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 35-45 KT AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING TROUGH W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. VERY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE/STABLE AIR IS GENERALLY NW OF A LINE THROUGH 32N113W 
20N125W 10N140W. OTHERWISE VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COVERS 
THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 120W. ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO 
NEAR NEAR 28N102W. SWLY WINDS N OF THE THIS ANTICYCLONE WERE 
HELPING TO VENTILATE/ADVECT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN NEWD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO 
AND W TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW 
CHARACTERIZED THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 100W. 

$$
COBB