000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 112.7W AT 03/2100 UTC 
OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO 
AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...EAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NW AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. FURTHER WEAKENING IS 
LIKELY AS JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND OVER THE BAJA 
PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION 
IS RAGGED WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONFINED TO 
THE E SIDE OF THE STORM AND MAINLY OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ 
BETWEEN 26N AND 29N. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS 
INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.1W AT 03/2100 
UTC DRIFTING TO THE S AT 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE W 
QUADRANT. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME STRENGTHENING AND KRISTY IS ONCE 
AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM BUT SHOULD ONLY REMAIN ONE FOR ANOTHER 24 
HOURS OR SO AS WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND 24 HOURS AND 
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...ITCZ...9N84W 10N93W 8N103W 12N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG N OF 5N E OF 86W...AND N OF ITCZ TO THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 93W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
180 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 125W.  

...DISCUSSION...
SHEARED UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA 
N OF 28N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W AND IS PART OF A BROAD AREA OF 
TROUGHINESS COVERING THE NW THIRD OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS 
AREA FEATURED SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 35-45 KT AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING TROUGH W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. VERY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE/STABLE AIR IS GENERALLY NW OF A LINE THROUGH 32N113W 
20N125W 10N140W. OTHERWISE VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COVERS 
THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 120W. ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO 
NEAR NEAR 28N102W. THIS ANTICYCLONE WAS PROVIDING OUTFLOW FROM 
WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM JOHN MAINLY IN THE E SEMICIRCLE WITH A 
VAST AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE STORM BEING ADVECTED BY 
SWLY WINDS ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND W 
TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW 
CHARACTERIZED THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 100W. 

$$
COBB