000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 112.5W AT 03/1500 UTC 
OR ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO AND ABOUT
165 MILES...270 KM...ESE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING 
TOWARD THE NW AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
OF 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS 
LIKELY AS JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND OVER THE BAJA 
PENINSULA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS 
BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE E SIDE OF THE STORM. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.9W AT 
03/1500 UTC DRIFTING TO THE ESE AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE NOW 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB. KRISTY IS WEAKENING AND CONSISTS OF 
ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AT BEST WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 
COOLER WATERS WITHIN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...ITCZ...8N78W 11N90W 8N102W 12N120W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG N OF 4N E OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 122W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 131W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA N OF 28N BETWEEN 
112W-120W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/STABLE AIR IS GENERALLY NW OF 
A LINE THROUGH 32N113W 20N125W 10N140W. OTHERWISE VERY WEAK 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 120W...
HOWEVER SW-W UPPER LEVEL WINDS 35-45 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
TROUGH W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LOCATED N OF 26N W OF 125W.
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO NEAR NEAR 27N105W. THIS 
ANTICYCLONE WAS PROVIDING OUTFLOW FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM 
JOHN MAINLY IN THE E SEMICIRCLE WITH A VAST AREA OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE FROM THE STORM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND 
W TEXAS.

$$
DGS