000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030948 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 112.1W AT 03/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 50 MILES...75 KM...WESTNORTHWEST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...EASTSOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHNORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS JOHN MOVES ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND IN BANDS 60 TO 70 NM N OF THE CENTER AND 112 NM TO 150 NM S OF THE CENTER.THE GUASAVE MEXICO RADAR INDICATES THAT THE BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE E COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN LA PAZ AND SAN EVARISTO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 118.1W AT 03/0900 UTC MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB. KRISTY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND NO LONGER HAS ANY DEEP CONVECTION WITH IT. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .NONE ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 9N78W 8N100W 13N115W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 3N79W TO 10N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF 7N106W AND WITHIN 50 NM OF 14N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 20 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N116W TO 8N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COAST FROM 6N78W TO 13N89W AND FROM 14N96W TO 16N103W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER NE MEXICO AND SRN TX. THE RIDGE IS WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD BETWEEN 120W AND 130W LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED E TO BETWEEN 110W AND 125W ALLOWING T.S. JOHN TO MOVE TO THE NW. A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIES NW OF THE REGION AND BARELY TOUCHES THE NRN BORDER. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK PACIFIC RIDGE STILL PERSISTS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION. SSMI AND QUIKSCAT SHOW NE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT N OF 12N W OF 125W. QUIKSCAT SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN NLY WINDS E OF 125W AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF T.S. JOHN OVER CENTRAL BAJA. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT IS CONFINED TO AN AREA S OF 5N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W AND W OF 125W. LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NE MEXICO REMAINS IN PLACE AND ALLOWS T.S. JOHN TO CONTINUE SLOWLY NWD OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA. THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO JUST BRUSH THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH NE TRADES REMAINING LIGHT. T.S. JOHN CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS CHANGE LITTLE. FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NRN MEXICO REMAINS STATIONARY WHILE THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF THE REGION CHANGES LITTLE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 20N146W AND HEAD NEWD. T.S. JOHN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT DRIFTS NWD. GAP WINDS AROUND CENTRAL AMERICA REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST S OF 5N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W AND W OF 130W. $$ RRG