000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 111.7W AT 03/0300 UTC 
OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 
40 MILES...65 KM...NORTH OF CIUDAD CONSTITUCION MEXICO. JOHN IS 
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS JOHN GRINDS ALONG 
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED WITH ONLY 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONFINED TO WITHIN 
120 NM IN THE NE AND 75 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. 
THE GUASAVE MEXICO RADAR INDICATES THAT THE BANDS OF CONVECTION 
HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND ADJACENT 
COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE E COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN LA 
PAZ AND SAN EVARISTO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS 
INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 118.2W AT 
03/0300 UTC MOVING TO THE EAST AT 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE NOW 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB. KRISTY IS WEAKENING AND CONSISTS OF 
ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AT BEST WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 
UPWELLED COOLER WATERS WITHIN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD 
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...ITCZ...9N84W 7N102W 13N115W 11N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 
130W. SCATTERED MODERATE 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 100W AND 
103W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 5N88W.  

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N128W. THE NORTHERN END OF THE 
TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING 
SLOWLY NW. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/STABLE AIR EXISTS WITHIN THE 
TROUGH AND GENERALLY NW OF A LINE THROUGH 32N115W 20N125W 
10N140W. OTHERWISE VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COVERS THE AREA 
N OF 10N W OF 120W. ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO 
DOMINATES THE PACIFIC E OF 115W. THIS ANTICYCLONE WAS PROVIDING 
VERY GOOD OUTFLOW FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM JOHN MAINLY IN 
THE E SEMICIRCLE WITH A VAST AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE STORM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 120W. 

$$
COBB