000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022207
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 111.2W AT 02/2100 UTC 
OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTH OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 70 
MILES...115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NW AT 8 MPH...14 KM/HR. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS JOHN INTERACTS WITH 
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CONFINED TO WITHIN 120 NM IN 
THE NE AND 75 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. THE 
GUASAVE MEXICO RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ EXTENDING 
WWD ALONG THE E COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN LA PAZ AND 
SAN EVARISTO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL 
PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 118.6W AT 
02/2100 UTC MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE NOW 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB. KRISTY IS WEAKENING AND CONSISTS OF 
ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 18N119W. 
KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER UPWELLED COOLER WATERS WITHIN A 
VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...ITCZ...9N84W 8N100W 13N115W 12N125W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 111W AND 118W...AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
98W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N127W. THE NORTHERN END OF THE 
TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING 
SLOWLY NW. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/STABLE AIR EXISTS WITHIN THE 
TROUGH AND GENERALLY NW OF A LINE THROUGH 32N115W 20N125W 
10N140W. OTHERWISE VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COVERS THE AREA 
N OF 10N W OF 120W. ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO 
DOMINATES THE PACIFIC E OF 115W. THIS ANTICYCLONE WAS PROVIDING 
VERY GOOD OUTFLOW FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM JOHN MAINLY IN 
THE E SEMICIRCLE WITH A VAST AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE STORM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 120W. 

$$
COBB