000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 110.8W AT 02/1500 UTC OR 
ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM...WNW OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 
NM...175 KM...SSE OF LORETO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NW 
9 MPH...15 KM/HR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 
80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE 
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS 
LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH LAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM W AND 90 NM E 
SEMICIRCLES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL 
PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 02/1500
UTC AND IS STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB. 
KRISTY IS WEAKENING AND CONSISTS OF ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. 
KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN A VERY DRY 
ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...ITCZ...8N84W 8N95W 14N110W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 
95W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 110W AND 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N122W. THE NORTHERN END OF THE 
TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING 
SLOWLY NW. OTHERWISE VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 10N W OF 120W. ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO
DOMINATES THE PACIFIC E OF 115W. THIS ANTICYCLONE WAS PROVIDING 
VERY GOOD OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE JOHN MAINLY IN THE E SEMICIRCLE 
WITH A VAST AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM 
THE HURRICANE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

$$
DGS