000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4N 109.6W AT 02/0300 
UTC OR NEAR LOS FRAILES MEXICO AND ABOUT 20 MILES...30 
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO.  THIS IS ALSO 
ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.  THE EYE 
OF JOHN MADE LANDFALL NEAR CABO DEL ESTE AROUND 0200 UTC. JOHN 
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE 
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS JOHN INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE CABO SAN 
LUCAS RADAR INDICATES THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AFTER LANDFALL 
AND THE EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED. BEAM BLOCKAGE PREVENTS A FULL VIEW 
OF THE EYEWALL. RADAR ALSO INDICATES ADDITIONAL SPIRAL RAINBANDS 
CONFINED TO THE S SEMICIRCLE OVER THE PACIFIC. SATELLITE WISE 
JOHN CONSISTS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM IN THE 
N AND 90 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLES. OUTFLOW IS BECOMING RESTRICTED 
IN THE W SEMICIRCLE AND REMAINS GOOD IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.1W AT 02/0300Z  
IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB. 
KRISTY IS WEAKENING AND CONSISTS OF ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. KRISTY IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WITHIN A VERY DRY 
ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...ITCZ...9N84W 10N100W 19N105W 16N121W 8N132W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 85W...AND 
BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N123W TO A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N121W. THE NORTHERN END OF THE 
TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING NW. 
TWO DISTINCT ANTICYCLONES BORDER THE TROUGH WITHOUT ANY 
SIGNIFICANT MOTION. ONE ANTICYCLONE TO THE W WAS NEAR 
14N141W...AND ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE...A MUCH LARGER FEATURE WAS 
LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO AND DOMINATED THE PACIFIC E OF 115W.
THIS ANTICYCLONE WAS PROVIDING VERY GOOD OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE 
JOHN MAINLY IN THE E SEMICIRCLE WITH A VAST AREA OF MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE HURRICANE.

$$
COBB