000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012212 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

 HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8N 109.0W
OR ABOUT 60 MILES...195 KM...E OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AT 01/2100 UTC. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE 
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A 
STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. 
WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JOHN INTERACTS 
WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE CABO SAN LUCAS RADAR INDICATES A 
WELL DEFINED EYE WITH STRONG CONVECTION FORMING A CLOSED EYEWALL 
AND SPIRAL RAINBANDS CONFINED TO THE S SEMICIRCLE OVER THE 
PACIFIC. SATELLITE WISE JOHN CONSISTS OF NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM IN THE N AND 120 NM IN THE S 
SEMICIRCLES. OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC WATCHES AND 
WARNINGS.
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.5W AT 01/2100Z  
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 1000 MB. KRISTY IS WEAKENING AND CONSISTS OF ONLY 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM IN 
THE SE SEMICIRCLE. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WITHIN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND 
SHOULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 
18-24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...ITCZ...9N84W 10N100W 18N105W 16N121W 8N133W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 5N E OF 83W AND FROM 6N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 99W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N123W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 20N120W. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD 
WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING NW. TWO DISTINCT ANTICYCLONES 
BORDER THE TROUGH WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOTION. ONE ANTICYCLONE
TO THE W WAS NEAR 14N140W...AND ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE...A MUCH 
LARGER FEATURE WAS LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO AND DOMINATED THE 
PACIFIC E OF 115W WITH A VAST AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. 

$$
COBB