000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011533 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK JOHN WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...22.0 N...108.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM KRISTY CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 118.3W AT 01/1500Z MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KRISTY IS WEAKENING AND HAS ONLY ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ON IT'S S SIDE ABOUT 25 NM OF THE CENTER AND A SECOND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE CELL IN A RAINBAND ABOUT 80 NM S OF THE CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .NONE ...ITCZ...7N78W 17N103W 8N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION N OF 3N E OF 81W AND FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 11N118W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N119W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING ENE WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS N. TWO DISTINCT ANTICYCLONES BORDER THE TROUGH WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOTION. A TROUGH EXTENTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MOVING WSW. LOWER LEVELS... HURRICANE JOHN...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM KRISTY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM S OF CENTER. $$ TORRES 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011533 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK JOHN WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...22.0 N...108.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM KRISTY CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 118.3W AT 01/1500Z MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KRISTY IS WEAKENING AND HAS ONLY ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ON IT'S S SIDE ABOUT 25 NM OF THE CENTER AND A SECOND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE CELL IN A RAINBAND ABOUT 80 NM S OF THE CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .NONE ...ITCZ...7N78W 17N103W 8N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION N OF 3N E OF 81W AND FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 11N118W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N119W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING ENE WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS N. TWO DISTINCT ANTICYCLONES BORDER THE TROUGH WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOTION. A TROUGH EXTENTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MOVING WSW. LOWER LEVELS... HURRICANE JOHN...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM KRISTY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM S OF CENTER. $$ TORRES