000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010936 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOHN AT 21.7N 108.8W AT 0900 UTC 960 MB MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 GUSTS TO 120 KT. JOHN IS 100 NM SE OF SRN TIP OF BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG MEXICAN W COAST INCLUDING SRN BAJA PENINSULA. FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY...COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR CENTER OF JOHN. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM KRISTY AT 19.3N 118.1W AT 0900 UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT WITH CENTRAL PRES OF 991 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KRISTY IS WEAKENING AND HAS ONLY ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ON IT'S S SIDE ABOUT 25 NM OF THE CENTER AND A SECOND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE CELL IN A RAINBAND ABOUT 80 NM S OF THE CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .NONE ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W 13N91W 17N103W 6N132W 6N140W. CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 6N78W AND 12N89W AND 10N101W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N94W TO 14N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N110W TO 11N119W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID LEVEL RIDGE HANGS ON OVER MEXICO TONIGHT AND IS PROVIDING THE MAIN MOVEMENT OF HRCN JOHN TO THE NW. A WEAKER MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER THE EXTREME W PORTION OF THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 135W. A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES FROM 120W TO 135W. WHAT WAS ONCE HRCN KRISTY WILL BE DOWNGRADED AT 0900 UTC. SHE IS GETTING MORE DISORGANIZED BY THE HOUR. THE STORM IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK EASTERLIES AND IS GENERALLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE NW..INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE N. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND NE TRADES OF 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 KT WERE CONFINED TO N OF 15N AND W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE MOSTLY NWLY 10 TO 15 KT BUT WILL INCREASE STEADILY OVER THE SRN PORTION AS HRCN JOHN APPROACHES FROM THE SE. GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST BETWEEN 105W AND 120W WHERE THE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS ENHANCE THE SLY FLOW. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WHERE IT IS BEING BLOCKED FROM MOVING BY A TROUGH TO THE E OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG 130W. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIE FROM NRN BAJA SW TO 20N140W SEPARATING THE TROUGH TO THE N ALONG 130W AND WEAK EASTERLIES TO THE S. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WHILE HRCN JOHN MOVES SLOWLY NW TO NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GAP WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN STRONGEST BETWEEN 110W AND 130W THANKS TO THE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND NE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT SHOULD BE THE RULE N OF 15N AND W OF 125W. FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICAN RIDGE FROM OVER NRN BAJA SW TO 24N140W. THE MEXICAN RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE HRCN JOHN ALONG TO THE NW BUT THE RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE N OF THE STORM KIND OF IMPEDES IT. KRISTY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 130W LIFTS NE TOWARD THE CA COAST AND THE FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE WLY N OF 28N. MID LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL REMAIN WEAK DAY 2. ON THE SURFACE HRCN JOHN WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NW ALONG THE BAJA COAST DAY 2. KRISTY WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 21N121W. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND NE TRADES WILL REMAIN NE 10 TO 15 KT N OF 15N W OF 125W. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS WEAKEN AS THE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS EITHER WEAKEN OR MOVE FURTHER N. $$ RRG