000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE JOHN AT 20.7N 107.0W AT 2100 UTC 971 MB MOVING NW OR 
315 DEG AT 11 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 GUSTS TO 110 KT.  
JOHN IS 200 NM SE OF SRN TIP OF BAJA PENINSULA WITH NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SE AND WITHIN 240 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLES.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM S OF OF CENTER IN SQUALLS.  RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES... 
POSSIBLE ALONG MEXICAN W COAST INCLUDING SRN BAJA PENINSULA... 
AND FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 
ADDITIONALLY...COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FT ABOVE 
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING 
WAVES...EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR CENTER OF JOHN. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL
PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

HURRICANE KRISTY AT 18.4N 117.2W AT 2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 310 
DEG AT 6 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 65 GUSTS TO 80 KT WITH 
CENTRAL PRES OF 987 MB.  KRISTY IS 520 NM SW OF SRN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER 
WITH BANDING FEATURES WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER OVER E QUADRANT 
AND S SEMICIRCLE . SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  9N79W  9N87W  17N107W  6N131W  7N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 85W TO 103W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
240 NM RADIUS FROM 16N107W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N127W TO 20N129W DIGS INTO BROAD WELL 
ANCHORED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG ENTIRE BASIN 
FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 140W.  TROUGH LOSES BATTLE AGAINST 
STRONGER RIDGE AND SHIFTS NE OUT OF AREA REBUILDING RIDGE FROM 
WRN MEXICO TO 22N140W.  RIDGE ALSO CONTRIBUTING HURCN KRISTY 
AND JOHN OUTFLOW.

STRONG MOIST NW FLOW ON S PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE CONTINUOUSLY 
FEEDS ITCZ ACTIVITY FROM 5N TO 10N.  DRY AIR MASS NOTED S OF 
5N.  ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN 
CONTRIBUTES WITH MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WESTWARD FROM COLOMBIA
FROM 5N TO 12N.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE 1029 MB EXTENDS SE FROM 41N149W 
ACROSS E PAC WATERS TO 20N126W CAUSING STRONG TRADES N OF 27N 
W OF 125W.

$$
WALLY BARNES