000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311552 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOHN CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 106.5W AT 31/1500 UTC 950 MB MOVING W NW OR 300 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. JOHN IS LOCATED ABOUT 280 NM SE OF THE SRN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. JOHN HAS A SMALL EYE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 8 NM. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OUTSIDE THE EYE WITHIN 120 NM S AND WITHIN 240 NM W AND N QUADS OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM S OF OF CENTER IN BANDS...WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION EXTENDS INLAND ABOUT 150 NM E OF THE CENTER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN W COAST INCLUDING THE SRN BAJA PENINSULA...AND COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY...COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL BE EXPERIENCED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF JOHN. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS. CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE KRISTY CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 116.5W AT 31/1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES OF 987 MB. KRISTY IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 NM SW OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WITH BROKEN BANDING FEATURES NOTED OVER THE E QUADRANT AND S SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER. STEERING HAS BECOME COMPLICATED ESPECIALLY WITH HURRICANE JOHN'S ANTICYCLONE BEGINNING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVELS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .NONE ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 10N90W 12N110W 7N128W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N83W 7N101W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16N94W 12N104W 12N118W THEN NARROWS TO 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N120W 7N129W 10N138W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ORIGINATING FROM A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER NW CANADA...EXTENDS SW OVER THE W COAST CONUS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 35N124W 32N129W 23N140W INTO A WESTWARD MOVING UPPER CYCLONE AT 18N147W...AND EXTENDING SW LOSING IDENTITY OVER THE ITCZ AT 10N158W. TO THE S OF THIS TUTT...LIES AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 19N135W RIDGING SW TO A SHARP CREST AT 12N142W. THIS ANTICYCLONE ALSO RIDGES NE TO A VERY SHARP CREST AT 26N125W. A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 26N122W 20N125W 15N130W AND EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES THE RIDGE TO THE W FROM A SMALL ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE KRISTY. TO THE SW OF KRISTY A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 11N126W AND SEEMS TO BE MOVING W WITH TIME...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE CURRENT MOTION OF KRISTY. STRONG UPPER DRY AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH MODERATE DRY AIR ELSEWHERE NW OF LINE 12N140W 13N123W 32N115W. SE OF THIS SAME LINE S OF THE ITCZ AT 4N THE UPPER LEVELS ARE QUITE MOIST DUE TO DEBRIS MOSITURE FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION ITSELF AND THE TWO CYCLONES. AN UPPER ANTICYLONE IS OVER NRN OLD MEXICO NEAR 28N104W WITH ONLY A SMALL FRACTION OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE JOHN IS NOW ADVECTED N OVER THE SW CONUS. MOST OF THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INITIALLY ADVECTED SE AND LATER SW BACK OVER THE TROPICAL PAC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACCOMPANYING HURRICANE JOHN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NE OVER THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 100W DIVING SW AND S ACROSS THE EQ INTO A S PAC UPPER ANTICYCLONE ESTIMATED AT 7S98W. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS ALONG 32N142W 26N117W. $$ NELSON