000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE JOHN CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 105.3W AT 31/0900 UTC 950 MB 
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. JOHN IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 NM WNW OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 NM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.  
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OUTSIDE THE EYE WITHIN 100 
NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER AND DANGEROUS INLAND 
FLOODING IS LIKELY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS 
INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

HURRICANE KRISTY CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 116.1W AT 31/0900 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
OF 987 MB. KRISTY IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 NM SW OF THE SRN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 
CENTER. GOOD OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE N AND NE OF 
KRISTY SHOULD MOVE KRISTY INITIALLY NW FOLLOWED BY A MORE W 
MOTION AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASE 
IN SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

.NONE

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...9N79W 8N87W 13N108W 7N127W 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 8N85W 
AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 8N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N109W TO 11N117W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE NEAR 10N122W. 

OTHER MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST AT 8N85W 
11N88W 14N93W AND 15N97W.

...DISCUSSION...

ON THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A RIDGE COVERS MEXICO WITH PLENTY OF 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN IT. THE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE 
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES WHILE A DRY MID LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION HAS MOVED W OF THE AREA TO NEAR 19N146W. A WEAK MID 
LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SSW TO 28N130W WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE HRCN 
JOHN ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND HRCN KRISTY ABOUT 450 NM SW OF 
LOWER BAJA. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS N OF 10N AND W OF 120W 
WITH NE TRADES OF 20 KT CONFINED TO N OF 26N AND W OF 125W. 
QUIKSCAT SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT AND SSMI 20 KT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST ARE MOSTLY LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS ARE LIGHT TONIGHT WHILE 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE INDICATED BY QUIKSCAT 
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W WITH AN AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 
120W TO 25 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO HOLDS FIRM FORCING 
HRCN JOHN TO MOVE NW ALONG IT'S PERIMETER. KRISTY LIES FURTHER W 
IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DRIFT NW IN A GENERAL WEAKNESS BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE UPPER MEXICAN COAST 
AND LOWER BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR HRCN JOHN CAREFULLY AS 
HE MAKES HIS WAY NW. KRISTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT NW. LITTLE 
CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE ARE THE WIND FIELD. NO CHANGE TO GAP 
WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NWD BETWEEN 108W AND 120W BEING 
AIDED BY THE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS. 

FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER MEXICO 
AND BEING THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON HRCN JOHNS' MOVEMENT TO JUST W 
OF THE LOWER BAJA COAST. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL PRESSURE 
FIELD WILL REMAIN BUT RECEDE NWD AS TWO WEAK RIDGE AXIS TRY TO 
MERGE ALONG 130W NEAR 22N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 ALL INTERESTS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST ON THE PACIFIC SIDE AND ON THE SEA OF 
CORTEZ SIDE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR HRCN JOHN.  KRISTY WILL 
REMAIN FURTHER W NEAR 120W AND BE ONLY A PROBLEM TO SHIPPING. 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS SOME DAY 2 AND NE TRADES DECREASE A 
BIT TO 10 TO 15 KT N OF 15N AND W OF 125W. GAP WINDS REMAIN 
LIGHT WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT AFFECT THE AREA 
S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 133W.  

$$
RRG