000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE JOHN CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 104.5W AT 31/0300 UTC 950 MB 
MOVING NW OR 300 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. JOHN IS LOCATED ABOUT 260 NM WNW OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 90 NM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.  
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OUTSIDE THE EYE WITHIN 100 
NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER AND DANGEROUS INLAND 
FLOODING IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL 
STRENGTHENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING SEVERAL 
PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 115.7W AT 31/0300 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
OF 990 MB. KRISTY IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 NM SW OF THE SRN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 
CENTER.  BANDING FEATURES HAVE WEAKENED AND A NEAR SYMMETRIC 
SYSTEM IS PRESENT.  KRISTY WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 
24 HOURS. GOOD OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE N AND NE 
OF KRISTY SHOULD MOVE KRISTY INITIALLY WNW WITH AN INCREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A MORE W MOTION OF THE WEAKENING 
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS AN 
INCREASE IN SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

.NONE

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 6N90W 12N110W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 84W TO 98W AND ALSO FROM 
107W TO 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE AREA WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N115W TO 13N120W AND NORTH OF 
THE ITCZ IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  
THIS IMPLIES UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA.  IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS W OF 120W N OF 18N. THE FLOW IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS WEAKLY CYCLONIC.  

ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE 
MOIST WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION. 
THIS AREA IS BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.
 
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N117W TO 15N125W TO 
13N140W.  ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES THE 
SURFACE IS ANALYZED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE.

$$
LL