000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE JOHN CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 103.3W AT 
30/2100 UTC 948 MB MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. JOHN IS LOCATED 
ABOUT 200 NM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 83 NM SSW OF LAZARO 
CARDENAS MEXICO.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OUTSIDE 
THE EYE WITHIN 120 NM  OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER AND 
DANGEROUS INLAND FLOODING IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE 
FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS 
INCLUDING SEVERAL PUBLIC WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 115.6W AT 30/2100 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
OF 994 MB. KRISTY IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 NM SW OF THE SRN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.  BANDING FEATURES ARE 
FORMING OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE SUGGESTING STRENGTHENING AND 
KRISTY WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE N AND NE OF KRISTY SHOULD MOVE KRISTY INITIALLY 
WNW WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A MORE W 
MOTION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS 
AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASE IN SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

.NONE

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 6N90W 12N110W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
POINT 6.6N82.9W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11.5N TO 15N FROM 105W TO 
111W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN THE AREA FROM 9.5N TO 11.3N FROM 120W TO 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE AREA WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N113W TO 12N120W AND NORTH OF 
THE ITCZ IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  
THIS IMPLIES UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA.  IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS W OF 120W NORTH OF 18N.  THE FLOW 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS WEAKLY CYCLONIC.  

ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE 
MOIST WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION. 
THIS AREA IS BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.
 
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N117W TO 15N125W TO 
13N140W.  ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES THE 
AREA IS ANALYZED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE.

$$
LL