000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JOHN CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 101.3W AT 30/0900 UTC MOVING 
WNW AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
120 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB. 
JOHN IS LOCATED ABOUT 125 NM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. JOHN 
CONSISTS OF A WELL DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF NUMEROUS 
STRONG TSTMS ABOUT 150-180 NM IN DIAMETER WITH AN EYE BEGINNING 
TO FORM. SOME OF THE STRONG TSTMS ARE ARE MOVING ALONG THE COAST 
NEAR ACAPULCO NWWD TO NEAR MAZATLAN. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE 
FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR JOHN TO 
BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JOHN IS 
FORECAST TO PARALLEL THE MEXICAN COAST BUT COME CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO SOME OF THE RESORTS ALONG THE 
COAST. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 114.7W AT 30/0900 UTC 
MOVING NW AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 
1005 MB. KRISTY IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-75 
NM OF THE CENTER OF KRISTY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND KRISTY 
MAY BECOME A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

.NONE

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N78W 14N97W 14N110W 10N125W 
10N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG S OF AXIS TO 4N AND E OF 80W TO COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60-90 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
60-90 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 86W AND 94W.

...DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR ALOFT IS 
INDICATED GENERALLY NW OF A LINE THROUGH 32N115W 15N125W 
14N140W. THE AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHINESS WITH A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
30N123W THROUGH 25N133W TO 21N141W. 

E OF THE LINE NOTED ABOVE AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ THE ATMOSPHERE 
IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH AREAS OF MULTI 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION.  THE CONVECTION 
IS CONFINED MOSTLY TO HURRICANE JOHN AND TROPICAL STORM KRISTY.
BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT 
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND THUS THE POTENTIAL TO 
INTENSIFY FURTHER.
 
AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF A LINE 
THROUGH 32N116W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 127W.  ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE 
A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
COBB