000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE JOHN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 100.4W AT 30/0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 10 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 
MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 
KT. JOHN IS LOCATED ABOUT 140 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER OF JOHN. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1007 MB TROPICAL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N115W MOVING W 5 KT. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN  
100 NM OF THE POINT 16.8N114.7W. THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 11N105W 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 
10.8N104.4W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF A LINE THROUGH 32N113W 14N122W 13N140W THE ATMOSPHERE IS 
DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH IMPLIED 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE BROADLY 
CYCLONIC IN THIS REGION.

E OF THE LINE NORTH OF THE ITCZ THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION.  THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED 
MOSTLY TO HURRICANE JOHN AND THE TROPICAL LOW.

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF A LINE 
THROUGH 32N116W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 127W.  ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE 
A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL