000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292123 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE JOHN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 99.7W AT 29/2100 UTC MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. JOHN IS LOCATED ABOUT 140 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER OF JOHN. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A 1006 MB TROPICAL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N114W MOVING W 7 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 16.6N115W. THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 12N100W 10N110W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 5N78.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 11.8N107.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 9.4W119.5W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF A LINE THROUGH 32N110W 14N123W 13N140W THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH IMPLIED UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE BROADLY CYCLONIC IN THIS REGION. E OF THE LINE NORTH OF THE ITCZ THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED MOSTLY TO HURRICANE JOHN AND THE TROPICAL LOW. AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N116W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 127W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED. $$ LL