000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291608
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE JOHN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 99.0W AT 29/1500 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 8 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 
MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 
JOHN IS LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.  JOHN 
CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER...AND  IN ADDITION 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N 
BETWEEN 96W-102W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1007 MB TROPICAL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N113W MOVING W 10 KT.  
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LOW LEVEL CENTER IS 
LOCATED AT THE E EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS BEING 
SHEARED AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BY MODERATE NE WINDS 
ALOFT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N 
BETWEEN 113W-116W.  

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...10N76W 11N86W 13N95W 14N110W 
12N120W 11N140W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR FROM 
11N-13N BETWEEN 88W-90W.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF HURRICANE JOHN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 
103W-109W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 
118W-130W.   

...DISCUSSION...

THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN THE PAST FEW 
DAYS...AS IS EXPECTED FOR LATE AUGUST.  THE ITCZ HAS DRIFTED N 
OVER THE ERN E PACIFIC DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND NOW EXTENDS 
FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA TO NEAR HURRICANE JOHN.  
HURRICANE JOHN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.  THE AREA OF CONVECTION W OF HURRICANE JOHN IS MOST LIKELY 
A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE ITCZ.  THE LOW AT 16N113W 
DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE 
CONTINUES TO LOWER.  THE DOMINATE SURFACE HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE 
AREA AT 42N150W WITH 1031 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.  IT IS PRODUCING 
TYPICAL NE SURFACE FLOW N OF 20N AND W OF 120W.    

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ELY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 20N.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AT 27N114W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N-32N 
BETWEEN 103W-120W.  AN AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE 30N114W TO 
15N125W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
THIS IMPLIES UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  THE AREA SE OF THIS LINE 
IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS 
AND AREAS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION. 

$$
FORMOSA