000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JOHN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 97.8W AT 29/0900 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 6 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 
MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 75 KT. JOHN IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 NM SE OF ACAPULCO 
MEXICO. JOHN CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE CENTER. AN 
ADDITIONAL BANDING FEATURE WAS INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. THE MOST RECENT AVAILABLE MICROWAVE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN EYE FEATURE SUGGESTING JOHN MAY 
BE VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

LOW 23N123W 1011 MB IS DRIFTING SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS 
THE REMNANT OF ILEANA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 5N TO 18N IS MOVING W 10 KT. A 
1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N113W.  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90-120 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LOW LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED AT THE 
E EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BY MODERATE NE WINDS ALOFT. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...9N78W 13N95W 14N100W 14N111W 
11N125W 10N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N105W TO 12N135W IS DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS IMPLIES UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE. THE AREA IS BROADLY CYCLONIC IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.  BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 
120W.  THIS AREA INCLUDES THE REMNANT OF ILEANA.

THE AREA SE OF THE LINE NOTED ABOVE TO 95W AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ 
IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS 
AND AREAS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THE AREA IS BROADLY 
ANTICYCLONIC.

E OF 95W THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY AND CLOUD FREE 
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N120W TO 15N140W.  
ELSEWHERE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

$$
COBB