000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JOHN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 97.3W AT 29/0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 6 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 
MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.  
LOCATED ABOUT 225 NM SE OF ACAPULCO.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 13.5N96.9W.  SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

LOW 24N123W 1010 MB IS DRIFTING SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS 
THE REMNANT OF ILEANA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 5N TO 18N MOVE W 10 KT.  A 1007 
MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N114W.  SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE 
POINT 14.6N114W.  THE CONVECTION SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION.  
THE COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT MOVE THE SYSTEM MUCH AND DO NOT 
DEVELOP IT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 12N105W 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 
12.2N103.6W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
THE AREA FROM 13.4N TO 16.3N FROM 112W TO 119W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N103W TO 10N135W IS DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  THIS IMPLIES UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE.  THE AREA IS BROADLY CYCLONIC IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS.  BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AREA NORTH OF 20N 
WEST OF 120W.  THIS AREA INCLUDES THE REMNANT IF ILEANA.

THE AREA SE OF THE LINE TO 95W AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ IS MOIST IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF 
EMBEDDED CONVECTION.  THE AREA IS BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC.

E OF 95W THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY AND CLOUD FREE 
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
OF 5.4N87.1W.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N120W TO 15N140W.  
ELSEWHERE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

$$
LL