000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JOHN UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E 
IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 96.7W AT 28/2100 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT.  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.  LOCATED 
ABOUT 300 NM SE OF ACAPULCO.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 13.5N96.9W.  SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

LOW 24N123W 1010 MB IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM IS THE 
REMNANT OF ILEANA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM OVER THE 
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 5N TO 18N MOVE W 10 KT.  A 1010 
MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N117W. AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
300 NM E OF THE AXIS FROM 12.7N TO 16.2N.  THE CONVECTION SHOWS 
SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION.  THE COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT MOVE THE 
SYSTEM MUCH AND DO NOT DEVELOP IT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 11N105W 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
POINT 12.2N100.3W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 14.5N105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 
14.5N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N103W TO 10N135W IS DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  THIS IMPLIES UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE.  THE AREA IS BROADLY CYCLONIC IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS.  BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AREA NORTH OF 20N 
WEST OF 120W.  THIS AREA INCLUDES THE REMNANT IF ILEANA.

THE AREA SE OF THE LINE IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N120W TO 13N140W.  
ELSEWHERE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

$$
LL