000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW 24N122W 1010 MB MOVE W 7 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS THE REMNANT OF 
ILEANA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE.  


LOW 12N95W MOVE W AT 10 KT. A BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDS AROUND 
THE SE SEMICIRCLE ABOUT 60 TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER. CLOUD TOP 
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOME DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS..BUT 
CONVECTION PERSISTS ON THE E SIDE OF THE APPARENT CENTER.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 5N TO 18N MOVING W 10 KT. SOME 
CYCLONIC TURN OF MID CLOUDS NEAR 14N117W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG 
CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 15N113W IS ON THE NE SIDE OF THE 
APPARENT CENTER. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED PAST FEW HOURS AND MAY 
BE TRYING TO FORM A BAND.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...9N77W 10N81W 9N85W 12N95W 10N114W 
13N128W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
11N95W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 13N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
30 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N105W TO 9N112W. CLUSTER OF STRONG 
CONVECTION NEAR 15N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N124W TO 
13N129W.

OTHER MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 
15N94W TO 15N97W TO 16N100W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 18N102W AND 
19N105W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 21N106W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT THE EASTERLIES HAVE BECOME MORE ACTIVE 
WITH THREE SYSTEMS NOTED..ONE ALONG 95W THE SECOND ALONG 115W 
AND THE THIRD THE OLD DRY CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N132W. THE 
MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS HUNG ON OVER THE SRN US AND NRN MEXICO 
HAS SEPARATED INTO TWO CENTERS..ONE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE 
OTHER CENTERED NEAR 32N115W. THE SECOND CENTER HAS RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING W AND SW ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK BUT STILL EXTENDS 
OVER THE REGION N OF 12N AND W OF 115W. SSMI AND QUIKSCAT SHOW 
NE TRADES MOSTLY 15 KT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 15 KT. GAP WINDS ARE LIGHT 
TONIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 10N BETWEEN 
95W AND 120W.

LATER DAY 1 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE RIDGE OVER NRN MEXICO 
RECONNECTING CENTERS AND EXTENDING W TO 125W. INVERTED TROUGHS 
AT MID LEVELS ARE NOTED ALONG 97W..113W AND 135W. A WEAKNESS IN 
THE MID LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD WILL EXIST BETWEEN 125W AND 135W N 
OF 25N. THE RIDGE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED 
TO DRIFT WWD LATER DAY 1. ON THE SURFACE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
OVERALL PRESSURE AND WIND PATTERN. A LOW NEAR 12N95W COULD 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM LATER DAY 1. 

FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE WESTERLIES BECOMING A LITTLE 
MORE AGRESSIVE ALONG THE NRN BORDER OF OUR REGION. STRONGER 
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION JUST N OF 
30N WITH ONE AXIS ALONG 100W AND THE SECOND ONE ALONG 126W. BOTH 
ERODE THE RIDGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 20N AND 30N. 
INVERTED TROUGHS AT MID LEVELS IN THE EASTERLIES MIGRATE SLOWLY 
WWD TO ALONG 100W..118W AND 139W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 AGAIN 
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PRESSURE AND WIND PATTERNS 
FROM DAY 1. THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
SYSTEM AND MOVE WNW TO JUST PAST 100W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY 
WINDS COULD BE ENHANCED IF THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND THE GFS MODEL 
IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THESE WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 100W AND 
120W.

$$
RRG