000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270935 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 27/0900 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA WAS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 120.1W MOVING WNW 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ILEANA HAS LOST ALL OF HER CONVECTION AND ONLY LOW AND MID LEVEL STRATAFORM CLOUDS ARE CIRCULATING ABOUT HER CENTER. LOW CENTER NEAR 11N92W MOVE W AT 10 KT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W. STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SOME ORGANIZATION IS TAKING PLACE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W FROM 5N TO 18N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FOLLOWING THE WAVE AXIS BUT THE CONVECTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N79W 12N89W 11N94W 12N104W 11N111W 10N125W 8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N80W 9N88W AND 15N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 20 NM OF A LINE FROM 9N131W TO 8N138W. OTHER CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO FROM 12N89W TO 13N95W AND FROM 15N95W TO 15N100W TO 17N104W AND FROM 21N106W TO 25N109W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT THE RIDGE OVER NRN MEXICO AND BAJA THE PAST WEEK HAS WEAKENED AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE N OF THE RIDGE. A SECOND MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE REGION ALONG 130W TO 140W. AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE HAS STALLED NEAR 23N131W. WHATS LEFT OF ILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER BAJA. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND QUIKSCAT AND SSMI CONFIRM NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE ALSO LIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS W OF NICARAGUA E TO SE 20 KT WHICH AGREES WITH THE GFS MODEL. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE 15 TO 20 KT IN A FEW SPOTS MAINLY ALONG 95W AND BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. A LOW CENTER NEAR 12N91W HAS POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. LATER DAY 1 ON THE MID LEVELS THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE WRN US CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN US AND NRN MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING OVER MEXICO. THE PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER BAJA SHIFTS WWD A LITTLE TO ALONG 115W WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 130W AND 140W REMAINS STATIONARY WITH THE EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N133W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE REMNANTS OF ILEANA CONTINUE PUSHING WNW AGAINST THE WEAKENED PACIFIC RIDGE PRODUCING N AND NE WINDS TO 25 KT OVER IT'S NW QUADRANT WITH A CENTER NEAR 23N122W. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N93W HAS POSSIBILITIES OF STRENGTHENING AND SHOULD BE MONITORED. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS WILL BE S AND SW S OF 10N MAINLY BETWEEN 90W AND 120W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER BAJA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WWD TO 120W. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD WILL CONTINUE OVER NRN MEXICO AS THE OTHER PORTION OF THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EWD. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS WHATS LEFT OF ILEANA AT MID LEVELS MOVING NW ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AT 120W. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD DEVELOPS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W AND THIS INFLUENCES WHATS LEFT OF ILEANA. THE DRY MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTS W TO NEAR 21N135W WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE HANGS ON OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A WEAK PACIFIC RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT..THUS NE TRADES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 KT. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST INCREASING SOME TO 15 TO 20 KT AS SURFACE PRESSURES OVER NW MEXICO LOWER TO 1007 MB. GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA DECREASE TO 10 KT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S AND SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. $$ RRG