000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 26/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 
119.2W...OR 500 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... 
MOVING WNW 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ILEANA IS SLOWLY 
WEAKENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE 
CENTER.

LOW CENTER NEAR 11N91W MOVE W AT 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 
12.3N91.2W.  THIS CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED IN A CYCLONIC 
ROTATION AND IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  THIS IS NOT 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE TROPICAL WAVE 
PREVIOUSLY ALONG 87W IS NOW ANALYZED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW 
PRES. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR 13N107W HAS DECREASED IN 
ORGANIZATION AND NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W 
FROM 5N TO 18N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND SHOWS NO 
SIGNS OF ORGANIZED CIRCULATION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 12N115W 7N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS FROM 111W TO 116W AND FROM 125W TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

EXCEPT FOR AN AREA 500 NM IN DIAMETER CENTERED NEAR 24.4N119.8W 
THE AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 32N103W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 135W 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IMPLYING LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  BROAD 
CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THIS AREA IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.  THE AREA WEST OF 120W NORTH OF 20N IS COVERED WITH 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  

THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH AMPLE 
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MULTI LAYERED 
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 125W.  
ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE AREA.

$$
LL