000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261608
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 26/1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 
119.3W...OR 500 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...MOVING WNW 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
990 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ILEANA IS SLOWLY 
WEAKENING. MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 50 NM OF 
THE CENTER OVER THE NW QUADRANT. 

LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N92W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. MID 
LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS 
MORNING...WITH TO THE MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THE CENTER. NO BAND IN CONVECTION 
DETECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE 12N108W...APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SW OF ACAPULCO MX... 
1005 MB MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO 
DIMINISH AND SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOW ALONG AN ASSOCIATED TROPICAL 
WAVE...AS A RESULT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...QUIKSCAT PASS 
FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION SE OF THE AREA 
OF CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 80W AND 85W N OF 
5N BUT NO ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N79W 10N98W 13N105W 10N125W 
7N140W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 5N80W AND 
7N84W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 14N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
30 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N114W TO 12N120W AND FROM 9N129W TO 
7N137W.

OTHER SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 
10N89W TO 15N95W AND NEAR 16N99W AND 14N106W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 120W...PERSISTENT MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA 
COAST THROUGH EQ140W...MAINTAINING DRY SUBSIDENT REGIME OVER THE 
AREA EXCEPT ALONG ITCZ. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LIMITING CONVECTION 
IN THIS AREA.

N OF 15N E OF 130W...WEAKENING CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM OF 
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER WATER. FURTHER 
EAST...NOCTURNAL  THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING ALONG THE 
MEXICAN COAST S OF 18N AND GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. 

S OF 15N...MAIN ISSUES TO WATCH WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF 
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS NEAR 10N92W AND 12N108W. THE 
EASTERNMOST SYSTEMS IS FAVORED FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BY MODEL 
GUIDANCE. THIS JIVES WITH ONGOING TRENDS SHOWING DECENT MID 
LEVEL ROTATION ON THAT LOW...WHILE THE WESTERN SYSTEM ALONG 108N 
IS UNDERGOING MODERATE SHEARING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION 
ALONG CENTAM COAST TO REFLARE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY W OF 90W.  
CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW TO PERSIST S OF 8N. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN