000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260923 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 26/0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.5N 118.6W...OR 409 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING WNW 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ILEANA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING. MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 40 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE NW QUADRANT. LOW PRESSURE 12N105W 1006 MB MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 80W AND 86W N OF 5N BUT NO ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N91W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION TO THE MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THE CENTER. NO BAND IN CONVECTION DETECTED. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N79W 10N98W 13N105W 10N125W 7N140W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 5N80W AND 7N84W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 14N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N114W TO 12N120W AND FROM 9N129W TO 7N137W. OTHER SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N89W TO 15N95W AND NEAR 16N99W AND 14N106W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA BUT HAS RECEDED E TO 115W. A BROAD ILL DEFINED RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF 120W BUT HAS HRCN ILEANA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED IN IT. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE WRN US MOVING SE BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON OUR REGION. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT HRCN ILEANA CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVED NW INTO COOLER WATERS. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND QUIKSCAT AND SSMI SHOW NE TRADES OF 15 KT N OF 12N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT AND GAP WINDS ARE ALSO WEAK. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS S OF 9N E OF 130W ARE 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND BAJA WILL WEAKEN SOME AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN US ERODES THE RIDGE. A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD WILL PERSIST W OF 120W WITH ILEANA AND THE MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N130W EMBEDDED IN IT. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WEAKENING ILEANA WILL PUSH AGAINST THE PACIFIC RIDGE AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 23N119W. NE TRADES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AT 15 KT AND WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST BECOME MORE N TO NE AT 10 TO 15 KT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KT S OF 10N E OF 130W. FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HANGS ON OVER MEXICO AND BAJA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES MOVING W TO NEAR 106W. A GENERALLY FLAT RIDGE CONTINUES AT MID LEVELS N OF 20N OVER THE REGION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ILEANA EMBEDDED IN IT NEAR 23N122W. THE MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS N IN THE RIDGE TO NEAR 23N134W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAIN WEAK AND NE TRADES OF 15 KT WILL PREVAIL N OF 18N AND W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST SHOULD BE NWLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT. GAP WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT BETWEEN 100W AND 115W AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR 12N108W. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. $$ RRG