000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 26/0300 UTC...HURRICANE ILEANA WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 
117.9W...OR 415 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...MOVING NW 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
987 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ILEANA HAS WEAKENED 
SLIGHTLY...AS EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD TOPS 
WARMING. MAIN CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF 
THE CENTER...WRAPPING FROM TO THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN SEMICIRCLE 
OF THE STORM. SHEARING AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS CONTAINED ON 
THE WEST SIDE. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG AS 
EARLIER...AND ALTHOUGH ILEANA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER 
COOLER WATERS...IT WILL WEAKEN AT A SLOW PACE.

LOW PRESSURE 11N104W 1006 MB MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  
CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.  THIS SYSTEM MY DEVELOP 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. 
CONVECTION LOCATED E OF THE WAVE AXIS HAS DIMINISHED.  THE 
SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  

LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 9N89W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. 
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 13N110W 7N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 
9.6N95.3W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11.5N TO 13.5N FROM 105W TO 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

NW OF A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO THE ITCZ NEAR 137W THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE CLOUD FREE AND DRY IMPLYING MODERATE 
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  THE LOWER LEVELS IN THIS AREA 
ARE COVERED WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 15N.  MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN THIS AREA.  

SE OF THIS LINE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF 
CONVECTION.  

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 122W.  ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$