000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 25/2100 UTC...HURRICANE ILEANA WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.0N 
117.2W...OR 415 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...MOVING WNW 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
987 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ILEANA HAS WEAKENED 
SLIGHTLY...AS EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD TOPS 
WARMING. MAIN CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF 
THE CENTER...WRAPPING FROM TO THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN SEMICIRCLE 
OF THE STORM. SHEARING AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS CONTAINED ON 
THE WEST SIDE. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG AS 
EARLIER...AND ALTHOUGH ILEANA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER 
COOLER WATERS...IT WILL WEAKEN AT A SLOW PACE.

LOW PRESSURE 11N104W 1006 MB MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  AN AREA 
OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 
12N105.4W.  SOME ORGANIZATION IS NOTED IN THE CLOUD PATTERN THIS 
SYSTEM MY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. 
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE WAVE 
AXIS BUT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  

LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N88W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE 
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ARE ORGANIZED BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 12N110W 7N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE POINT 5.8N79.6W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 11.9N105.6W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINT 11.9N109.7W.

...DISCUSSION...

NW OF A LINE FROM 32N108W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 137W THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS ARE CLOUD FREE AND DRY IMPLYING MODERATE TO STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  THE LOWER LEVELS IN THIS AREA ARE 
COVERED WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 15N.  MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN THIS AREA.  

SE OF THE LINE 32N108W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 137W THE ATMOSPHERE IS 
MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF 
CONVECTION.  

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 125W.  ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$