000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251035 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ILEANA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 116.7W...OR 330 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 25/0300 UTC MOVING NW 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ILEANA'S EYE IS BEGINNING TO LOOK DEFORMED AS THE CIRCULATION WEAKENS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED WITH A SPIRAL BAND 120 NM S OF THE CENTER AND NOT IN THE ACTUAL EYEWALL. THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW IS STILL NOTED OVER THE SRN SEMICIRCLE. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN SPIRAL BANDS WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WELL- DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL APPARENT IN THE LATEST IMAGERY NEAR 9N88W. EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR THIS CENTER HAS DIMINISHED. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE LOCATED JUST W OF 90W BUT DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL CENTER. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE IS CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE MID CLOUDS ABOUT A CENTER NEAR 10N103W. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING ON THE W SIDE OF THIS CENTER AND ISOLATED NEW CONVECTION HAS APPEARED ON THE E SIDE DURING THE PAST TWO HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N79W 10N100W 17N113W 10N130W 9N140W. CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 5N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N86W TO 8N94W AND FROM 10N104W TO 11N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N113W TO 12N119W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 9N130W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 11N91W TO 14N93W. ...DISCUSSION... AT THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A LARGE FLAT RIDGE COVERS MEXICO WWD ACROSS BAJA TO 120W. A SECOND MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES N/S ALONG 140W WITH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES ALONG 130W. A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WAS NEAR 20N130W WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT HRCN ILEANA WAS MOVING NW ON THE PERIFERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS MAINLY W OF 120W WHERE IT IS PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT N OF 10N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. GAP WINDS ARE ALSO WEAK TONIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST N OF 4N E OF 105W ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI IMAGERY. LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL CHANGE LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP ILEANA ON IT'S EDGE AND MOVING NW. A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD W OF 120W WILL INCREASE SOME AS THE N/S RIDGE ALONG 130W SLIDES W AND WEAKENS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 HRCN ILEANA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NW OVER COOLER WATERS. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS SOME AND NE TRADES DECREASE S OF 20N. N OF 20N THEY REMAIN NE TO 20 KT WITH NE SWELL TO 8 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT SOME INCREASE IN SW SWELL TO 8 FT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE BAJA AS ILEANA MOVES NW ABOUT 250 NM TO THE W AND SW. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS S OF 10N W OF 105W INCREASE TO 20 KT WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. S OF 8N E OF 105W S AND SW WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL WITH S SWELL TO 8 FT. FOR DAY 2 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND BAJA. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM AND CONTINUE NW AROUND THE WRN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ALONG 130W WILL DRIFT WNW. THE LOW IS IN THE WEAKNESS OF THE MID LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD AND IS NOT INFLUENCED BY ANY SYSTEMS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND NE TRADES DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. THE GFS MODEL WANTS TO INTENSIFY A WEAK TROPICAL LOW ALONG 10N AND TAKE IT WWD TO NEAR 10N110W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT DAY 2. GAP WINDS W OF EL SALVADOR INCREASE SOME TO E AND SE TO 20 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS COULD INCREASE BETWEEN 105W AND 110W IF THE MODEL IS CORRECT WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG 10N. $$ RRG