000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ILEANA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N 115.5W...OR 330 NM WSW 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 24/2100 UTC MOVING 
WNW7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. EARLIER TODAY ILEANA HAD LOST ALL DEEP 
CONVECTION IN THE WRN EYEWALL...BUT THE EYE HAS SINCE CLOSED UP 
AGAIN WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS CIRCLING ABOUT 3/4 OF THE WAY 
AROUND THE CENTER. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRUCTURE 
IS NOW THAT OF A BANDING EYE...WITH ONE LONG SPIRAL BAND NEARLY 
ENCLOSING THE EYE. THE NERN OUTFLOW JET FROM YESTERDAY HAS 
ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATED...AND NOW THE S/SW JET IS THE PREDOMINANT 
FEATURE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 45 NM 
S SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE IN SPIRAL BANDS 
WITHIN 150 NM SE AND 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE MID-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WHICH WAS NOTED YESTERDAY OVER PANAMA HAS PERSISTED 
AND IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 9N. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE 
ENVELOPE OF TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION N OF 4N BETWEEN 84W-90W. SOME OF THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE 
ALSO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS 
AND COULD CAUSE AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LOW PRES MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS NEAR 10N...WITH A SOLID BAND OF CONVECTION CURLING AROUND 
THE S/SW SIDE. OTHER TSTMS ARE ALSO PERSISTING AROUND THE N/NE 
SIDE BUT HAVE NOT YET CONSOLIDATED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 100W-109W...AND FROM 
10N-12N BETWEEN 93W-100W. STRONG NE/E SHEAR IS CURRENTLY OVER 
THE SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF 
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N80W 9N86W 10N95W 10N102W 15N112W 
8N140W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
111W-123W. OTHER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE AREA OF DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS THE NW AND FAR W 
PACIFIC AREA...WITH A STABLE LAYER PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 
STRATOCUMULUS N OF 17N W OF 120W. A MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR 20N129W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT FROM 26N128W TO 
7N135W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO E OF 124W S OF 
20N...AND E OF HURRICANE ILEANA N OF 20N. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING 
ADVECTED WWD BY A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES 
ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR GUADALAJARA MEXICO. VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE 
PACIFIC E OF 110W IS CURRENTLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND WOULD 
SEEM TO INHIBIT DEVELOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVES IN THE REGION. 
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURES OF EACH WAVE ARE NOT TO 
SHABBY SO THEY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

$$
BERG