000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240933 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ILEANA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.9N 114.2W...OR 275 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 24/0900 UTC MOVING WNW 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE AXIS REPOSITIONED BASED ON ADDITIONAL DATA. CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST S OF COSTA RICAN COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONIC ROTATION NOTED IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME ORGANIZATION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION NOTED IN THE MID CLOUDS ALONG 98W WITH AN INCREASE IN STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN THIS POSITION AND THE WAVE AXIS. OTHER STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS NEAR 10N103W HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HRS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 9N99W 18N112W 12N126W 9N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N79W 6N86W 6N88W 7N91W 8N99W 10N103W 10N118W AND 7N137W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST AT 8N84W 15N94W AND 21N106W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT THE RIDGE THAT HUNG OVER THE SRN PLAINS LAST WEEK HAS DRIFTED WWD AND WAS OVER NRN MEXICO AND SRN SW US. THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES ARE CONFINED TO S OF 20N. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT HRCN ILEANA IS THE MAIN FEATURE NEAR 19.7N113.8W AT 0300Z MOVING WNW. THE PACIFIC RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N AND W OF 115W WITH STRONGEST NE TRADES W OF 125W AND N OF 20N ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI IMAGERY. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST TONIGHT ARE NWLY 10 KT OR LESS. LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 30N AND IS KEEPING HRCN ELEANA FROM TAKING A MORE NLY COARSE. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 HRCN ILEANA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WNW AND REMAIN AT ABOUT THE SAME INTENSITY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RECEDE SOME LESSENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION THUS NE TRADES WILL DECREASE TO MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. SOME SLY SWELL OF 8 FT WILL BRUSH THE SRN TIP OF BAJA AS ILEANA PASSES BY TO THE SW. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT MAINLY BETWEEN 88W AND 100W AND ALSO BETWEEN 115W AND 128W. SLY SWELL TO 8 FT SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 10N. FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NRN MEXICO WILL FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT STILL COVER THE AREA BETWEEN 12N TO 30N E OF 120W. HRCN ILEANA WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES NW. A WEAKNESS ALONG 130W WILL PERSIST AT MID LEVELS AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY EVENTUALLY FORM. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 HRCN ILEANA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES NEAR 22N 118W. THE PACIFIC RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS FURTHER AND NE TRADES SHOULD BE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT NWLY WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. GAP WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT BETWEEN 5N AND 10N FROM 88W TO 108W AND FROM 120W TO 130W. SLY SWELL SHOULD BE 6 TO 8 FT. $$ RRG