000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232153 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ILEANA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 112.7W...OR 280 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 23/2100 UTC MOVING NW 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ILEANA HAS DEVELOPED A SOLID CENTRAL CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONE LONG SPIRAL BAND EXTENDING OUT THE SE QUADRANT...THEN CURLING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE STORM TO THE NE QUADRANT. THE EYE IS SLIGHTLY CLOUD FILLED IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT NONETHELESS HAS A DISTINCT 20 NM DIAMETER. THERE ARE TWO MAIN OUTFLOW JETS...ONE EXTENDING S/SW OF THE SYSTEM AND THE OTHER FLOWING NE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG IS ELSEWHERE IN SPIRAL BANDS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM PANAMA SWD ABOUT 250 NM INTO THE E PACIFIC...A LITTLE BIT E OF THE ANALYZED WAVE POSITION. THIS CLUSTER ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT THE LOW-LEVELS ARE STILL EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 3N BETWEEN 80W-84W AND OVER PANAMA. TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED ALONG 95W/96W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE OBVIOUS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING IN A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. THERE MAY BE A POSSIBLE LOW FORMING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA...BUT THIS FEATURE IS STILL TOO ELONGATED. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 94W-100W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 8N93W 16N104W THEN 11N113W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-127W. OTHER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... EXCEPT FOR HURRICANE ILEANA...THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC W OF 110W. THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY A SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 8N132W TO 27N124W AND DRIFTING SLOWLY W...AND SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS PRODUCING A LARGE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD N OF 16N W OF 119W. THE REMNANT LOW OF HECTOR IS NOW W OF THE AREA NEAR 23N141W BUT IS STILL PRODUCING WINDS 20-25 KT OVER THE EXTREME NW PART OF THE REGION IN THE GRADIENT ADJACENT TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS HAS PLUNGED SWD TO THE EQUATOR W OF 128W ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND HAS ESSENTIALLY EXTINGUISHED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THAT AREA. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-128W CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DISCUSSION ON ILEANA. E OF 110W... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING STRONG NE/E UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC S OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 45-50 KT WITH 20-40 KT OF NELY SHEAR...SO NEITHER OF THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES IN THE REGION REALLY HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEVELOPING AT THIS POINT. $$ BERG