000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231615
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ILEANA NEAR 18.1N 111.5W 960 MB AT 1800 UTC AUG 23 
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 11 KT. ILEANA HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY 
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 125 KT. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND 80 
NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE...ALTHOUGH ILEANA HAS BEEN UNDERGOING 
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND 
CONVECTION PATTERNS ARE FLUCTUATING. THE REMAINS WELL 
ESTABLISHED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A DIAMETER AROUND 25 NM. 
THE NHC FORECAST HAS ILEANA CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...BEFORE 
RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER THROUGH THE FOLLOWING 24 HOUR PERIOD OVER 
COOLER WATERS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 2N MOVING W 12 KT. LITTLE 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OFF THE COSTA RICAN 
COAST. HOWEVER...REMNANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE OVER BAY OF PANAMA AND THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON.

AN EARLIER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 3N APPEARS TO BE 
UNDERGOING DEFORMATION BETWEEN INFLOW INTO ILEANA TO THE NW AND 
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ AROUND 95W...SE OF THE 
WAVE. QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEFORMATION NICELY AND MATCHES 
WELL WITH CLOUD ELEMENTS ON ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS A 
RESULT OF THIS SHEARING...SCANT EVIDENCE OF THE WAVE REMAINS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG...6N77W 7N95W 13N105W 8N128W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 5N E OF 80W AND 
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR 6N952. SCATTERED 
STRONG IS EVIDENT WITHIN 100 NM OF THIS POINT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS FROM 9N128W TO 10N117W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM 30N138W TO 
23N128W TO 9N130W. DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH N OF 8N AND W OF 
120W. 

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM ILEANA EXTENDS UP TO 350 
NM FROM CENTER. TOPS ARE WARMING OVER REMNANT CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W. 

MODERATE TO STRONG NE FLOW SW OF A LINE FROM 17N103W TO EQ123W 
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ILEANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
E OF 80W.

$$
EC