000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ILEANA NEAR 17.5N 110.6W 960 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 23 
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 14 KT. ILEANA HAS INTENSIFIED WITH 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND 100 NM 
OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE.  THE EYE IS ABOUT 25 NM IN DIAMETER.  
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND SYMMETRIC IN ALL QUADS. ILEANA 
IS TRACKING TO THE SE OF AN RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS IT MOVES 
OVER COOLER WATERS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

LOW PRES REMNANT OF HECTOR 23N139W 1010 MB MOVE W AT 7 KT.  
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE WITHIN 360 NM OVER THE NORTH 
SEMICIRCLE.  MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE LOW 
LEVEL CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE W 
AND BE W OF 140W LATER TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 2N HAS MOVE W 12 KT.  SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE 
AXIS AND MAY BE RELATED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER 
COLOMBIA COAST AND THE GULF OF PANAMA RATHER THAN THE WAVE.  NO 
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION IS NOTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 3N HAS MOVE W 15 KT. ONLY A SMALL 
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG...6N77W 6N95W 11N110W 7N130W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 5.5N E OF 80.5W 
AND N OF 3N E OF 78.5W.
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 15.6N99.6W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 
32N134W TO 26N137W TO 25N140W.  MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTH OF 24N.  RIDGE IS NORTH OF 25N 
BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER ILEANA IS WELL ESTABLISHED 
AND IS 750 NM IN DIAMETER. 

EAST OF ILEANA WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS A 
BROAD TROUGH.

DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 
32N125W TO 25N130W TO 23N140W AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND NW OF A 
LINE FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE ITCZ NEAR 
125W.

EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT OF HECTOR A MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 
22N.  ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR ILEANA A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE 
AREA.

$$
LL