000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURCN ILEANA IS NEAR 15.8N 108.2W 987 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 22 
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT 
GUSTS 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER IN BANDS WITH A 12 NM DIAMETER 
EYE APPEARING  INTERMITTENTLY. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SYMMETRIC 
IN ALL QUADS. ILEANA IS TRACKING TO THE SE OF AN RIDGE AND IS 
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WEAKEN 
THEREAFTER AS SHE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TS HECTOR IS NEAR 22.9N 137.4W 1007 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 22 MOVING 
W OR 280 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FLARED ABOUT 180 NM NE OF 
CENTER NEAR 26.5N135W WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED.
HECTOR SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TD TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 36 
HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W HAS MOVED W ABOUT 17 KT THE PAST 24 
HOURS. SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED AS THE WAVE TRACKS W 
THROUGH A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 3N HAS MOVED W 15 KT THE PAST 24 
HOURS. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ BUT 
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED AS FAR N AS THE SRN BAY OF 
CAMPECHE.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N79W 6N94W 13N106W 8N125W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 3N86W 12N97W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 10N107W 
10N120W 7N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

SW UPPER FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N W OF 
131W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 33N151W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
17N150W AND RIDGING E TO A SHARP CREST AT 20N135W...AND 
CONTINUING TO SHEAR TS HECTOR OVER ITS SW QUAD.   

A LARGE UPPER CYCLONE IS AT 16N125W AND SHIFTING W WITH TIME. 
ANOTHER CYCLONE OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 25N106W IS ALSO SHIFTING W. 
TO THE N OF THESE CYCLONES...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER SRN 
OKLAHOMA AT 33.5N98W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W AND SW TO A CREST 
AT 25N130W...WITH AN EMBEDDED WEAK ANTICYCLONE NOTED NEAR 
28N123W. THIS RIDGE WILL PLAY A LARGE PART IN THE STEERING OF 
HURCN ILEANA. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 21N90W...WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS N OF 10N BETWEEN 
83W AND 103W.   

$$
NELSON