000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221643 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ILEANA NEAR 14.8N 106.7W AT 1500 UTC MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. ILEANA IS WELL ORGANIZED AND HAS LARGE ENVELOPE WITH BANDS OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM OF THE CENTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST MAY BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT AND SYMMETRIC IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH A SLIGHT RESTRICTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. ILEANA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N114W IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION AND SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM HECTOR NEAR 22.8N 137.0W 1007 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 21 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS TOTALLY EXPOSED WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AND LOCATED 175 NM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DETECTED 35 KT WINDS NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. HECTOR REMAINS IN A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR. HECTOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND REMAINS IN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND GENERALLY ALONG THE ITCZ BUT WITH NO ORGANIZATION. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N80W 12N100W 8N120W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 100W... OVERALL FLOW REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW CONFINED TO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM ALONG 27N135W THROUGH 36N125W INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. STRONG SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT STRUGGLING TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AREAS OF MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR WERE INDICATED FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 130W AND N OF 15N BETWEEN 112W AND 127W. A WEAK ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR 28N123W AND A DOWNSTREAM SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH HAS FRACTURED WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 16N122W MOVING W 12 KT AND A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SWD TO 20N122W. DIFFUSE ANTICYCLONE WAS NEAR 24N114W. DIFFLUENT FLOW WAS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. E OF 100W... DIFFLUENT FLOW SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N114W AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N107W DOMINATED MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 100W. THIS AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WAS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA. $$ COBB