000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TS ILEANA NEAR 14.0N 105.6W 1000 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 22 MOVING 
WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 
KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 
13.6N104.9W.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE POINT 12.1N106.7W.  CLOUD MOTION INDICATES GOOD 
OUTFLOW.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY AS IT 
TRACKS OVER WARM WATERS.

TS HECTOR NEAR 22.4N 136.5W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 22 MOVING 
WNW OR 285 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 
KT. SWLY SHEAR CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER 
THE NE QUAD WITHIN 75 NM OF 24.1N134.6W. HECTOR WILL LIKELY 
WEAKEN TO A TD BY TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 2N MOVE W AT 15 KT.  THERE IS 
SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE NORTH PART OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
POINT 14.4N93.3W.  THIS CONVECTION IS PROBABLY RELATED TO 
EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE LAND.  NO ORGANIZATION IS NOTED WITH 
THE CONVECTION OR THE CLOUD MOTIONS. NORTHEAST SHEAR OVER THE 
AREA WILL INHIBITED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 10N105W 8N130W 14N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
8.4N124.1W.

...DISCUSSION...
TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 130W.  THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING 
STRONG SOUTHWEST SHEAR OVER HECTOR.  THIS AREA IS DRY EXCEPT FOR 
THE MOISTURE COMING FROM HECTOR DUE TO THE TRANSPORT OF LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE ALOFT WITHIN THE CONVECTION. 

A RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N FROM 110W TO 130W.  LITTLE WEATHER IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA IS QUITE DRY IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS N OF 25N EAST OF 120W.

LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N121.4W.  
THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 800 NM IN DIAMETER AND IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS IMPLYING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OBSERVED EAST OF 110W.  DESPITE DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE LITTLE CONVECTION IS NOTED OUTSIDE OF ILEANA.

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE NORTH OF 20N FROM 130W TO 110W.  ELSEWHERE BROAD 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITH THE EMBEDDED TROPICAL STORM ILEANA.

$$
LL