000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR NEAR 21.8N 135.4W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 
21 MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 
35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS TOTALLY EXPOSED WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AND
LOCATED GENERALLY BETWEEN 125 AND 175 NM IN THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. HECTOR REMAINS IN A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION AND 
CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR. HECTOR SHOULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER INCREASINGLY 
COOLER WATERS AND REMAINS IN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 12N103W CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WITH BANDS 
OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 TO 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. 
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT DESPITE THE SYSTEM'S LOCATION 
TO THE SOUTH OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO 
NEAR VERACRUZ. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO WELL SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AN AREA OF 
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WWD INTO AN 
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH NWP 
MODELS SUGGESTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. 
AS SUCH THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE WAVE AXIS AND GENERALLY ALONG THE ITCZ BUT WITH NO 
ORGANIZATION. 

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 9N100W 13N98W 8N117W 17N135W 
16N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W 
AND 95W...AND WITHIN 120-150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 
131W. 

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM 20N TO 23N AND NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE SEA OF 
CORTEZ.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 
78W AND 82W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
OVERALL FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED WITH FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLIES CONFINED
TO THE AREA W OF 135W AND N OF 27N E OF 135W. AREAS OF MODERATE 
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR WERE INDICATED N OF 2ON 
W OF 130W AND N OF 27N E OF 125W. STRUGGLING TROPICAL STORM 
HECTOR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS 
CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A WEAK 
ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23N125W AND A DOWNSTREAM SHARP 
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH HAS FRACTURED WITH A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 16N118W MOVING W 10 KT AND A REMNANT SHEAR 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SWD TO 14N116W. 
DIFFUSE ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 24N111W. DIFFLUENT FLOW WAS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
120-150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 131W. 

E OF 100W...
DIFFLUENT FLOW SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N111W AND THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 
VERACRUZ/20N97W DOMINATED MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 
100W. THIS AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WAS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF STRONG 
CONVECTION AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N103W.     

$$
COBB