000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190946 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT AUG 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE HECTOR IS NEAR 17.4N 129.1W AT 0900 UTC MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. WHILE HECTOR'S EYE CLOUDED OVER AT TIMES THE EYE WALL APPEARED TO STRENGTHEN AS TOPS GOT COLDER THEREFORE HECTOR'S WINDS WERE INCREASED TO 90 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO ORGANIZE AS CELLS MOVE TOWARD A COMMON CENTER. GFS MODEL WANTS TO DEVELOP THIS WAVE INTO A LOW CENTER IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W FROM 6N-14N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOLLOWING THE WAVE BUT LITTLE ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N78W 7N84W 9N97W 8N107W 7N117W 14N128W 9N140W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 6N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 20 NM OF A LINE FROM 9N93W TO 8N108W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 9N114W AND 8N118W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 12N134W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST AT 7N79W TO 7N82W THEN SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N85W TO 15N95W. ISOLATED NEAR THE COAST AT 16N99W AND 24N107W. ...DISCUSSION... ON THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN US HOLDS FIRM WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING W TO SW ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND OVER BAJA. THE WESTERLIES STILL ARE TRYING TO PENETRATE THE REGION S OF 30N AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT ALONG 123W. FLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE ALONG 140W JUST N OF THE REGION MOVING E. EASTERLIES ARE CONFINED TO S OF 20N WITH HRCN HECTOR EMBEDDED ALONG 128W NEAR 17N. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS TRYING TO POKE EWD ALONG THE BAJA COAST. QUIKSCAT SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS BUT THAT LOOKS TOO HIGH. GFS MODEL SHOWS ONLY 15 KT AND SSMI AGREES. OTHERWISE THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES N OF 13N TO 25N W OF 128W AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH NE SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT. HECTOR IS PUSHING AGAINST THE RIDGE AND ENHANCING THE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THE NE TRADES. ELSEWHERE TONIGHT GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS S OF 10N ARE NEAR 20 KT BETWEEN 95W AND 130W. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN US AND NRN MEXICO. THE FIRST SHORTAVE IN THE WESTERLIES LIFTS NE INTO SRN CA WHILE THE SECOND ONE MOVES E TO NEAR 135W AND WILL JUST BRUSH THE NRN PART OF THE REGION. HECTOR WILL REMAIN IN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES BUT IS MOVING INTO A WEAKENED MID LEVEL PRESSURE AREA WHICH COULD GIVE THE STORM A MORE NWLY TRACK. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE PACIFIC RIDGE CHANGES LITTLE AND WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NWLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH NW SWELL OF 4 TO 5 FT. NE TRADES WILL REMAIN BRISK TO 25 KT BETWEEN 16N AND 25N W OF 130W AS HECTOR CONTINUES TO PUSH AGAINST THE RIDGE. GAP WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 90W AND 130W AND MOSTLY SLY TO 20 KT WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. GFS MODEL WANTS TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 97W INTO A 1009 MB LOW..RIGHT NOW THERE IS MUCH GOING ON EXCEPT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE ITCZ. FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN US BEGINS TO SHIFT WWD SLIGHTLY WITH A CENTER OVER CENTRAL TX. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE SW ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND BAJA TO NEAR 20N125W. THE WESTERLIES STRENGTHEN SOME AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. HECTOR CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY W AND NW INTO A WEAK MID LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS SOME BUT THE WIND FIELD ON THE NW QUADRANT OF HECTOR WILL REMAIN STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 20N TO 26N W OF 134W. ALONG THE BAJA COAST NW WINDS TO 20 KT WITH NW SWELL INCREASING TO 6 TO 7 FT SHOULD BE THE RULE. GAP WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 8N E OF 120W. THE GFS MODEL STILL WANTS TO STRENGTHEN A WEAK LOW NEAR 10N101W TO 1008 MB WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE SLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ALONG 100W S OF 10N. $$ RRG