000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE HECTOR IS AT 16.1N 125.8W AT 18/1500 UTC MOVING WNW OR 
290 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 
85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 30 NM 
AND T.S. FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 200 NM EXCEPT 225 NM NW QUADRANT.  AFTER 
STRENGTHENING YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT HECTOR APPEARS TO 
BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND AS THE STORM IS MOVING OVER COOLER 
WATERS. AFTER EXHIBITING A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND EYEWALL 
OVERNIGHT ...THE STORM IS BECOMING RAGGED WITH MORE OF AN 
ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
MAINLY ON THE N SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITHIN 90 NM. WEAKENING 
IS FORECAST AS HECTOR MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AND 
INCREASING SHEAR. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

SRN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER ERN E PAC ALONG 87W N OF 4N 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND N INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE 
IS MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. NO ORGANIZATION 
NOTED...BUT UPPER WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR 
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W FROM 5N-13N MOVING W 12 KT. LITTLE 
ORGANIZATION OR CONVECTION. MODERATE N-NE SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 7N115W 11N140W.SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
75 NM OF 11.3N92.9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM 
OF 13.5N93.4W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 
12N100.3W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 
7N109.6W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 9.8N134.1W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 12N139.8W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS NRN MEXICO SWD 
TO 120W. THIS FLOW IS INTERRUPTED BY A WEAKNESS FROM A MID-UPPER 
TROUGH BETWEEN 120W-130W. DRY STABLE AIR AND FAIR WEATHER COVERS 
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF 22N. THIS WEAKNESS IS WHAT IS 
STEERING HECTOR N OVER COOL WATERS. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LIES 
W OF 130W.  

AT THE SURFACE...TYPICAL PACIFIC RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS THE 
AREA. HECTOR IS PUSHING AGAINST THE RIDGE AND ENHANCING NE 
TRADES BETWEEN 12N AND 27N W OF 132W WITH WINDS 20 KT AND SEAS 8 
FT. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS ARE 15 TO 20 KT. S SWELLS ARE 
PRODUCING 8 FT SEAS S OF 6N BETWEEN 90W-100W. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST ARE NW 10 TO 15 KT. GAP WINDS AROUND CENTRAL AMERICA 
ARE MOSTLY LIGHT ALSO. A PATCH OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE 
COAST OF SRN MEXICO E OF 104W FROM 17N-19N. BESIDES FOR THIS 
CONVECTION ...HECTOR AND THE ITCZ...A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF 
CONVECTION IS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

GFS MODEL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL LATER TODAY WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING IN THE NE TRADES W OF 125W. BAJA WINDS 
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME 10 TO 15 KT WITH NW SWELL TO 6 FT. GAP 
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 
THE SAME STRENGTH AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT.


$$
JC/WB